The Collapse of the Cocaine Consensus

Sunday, 19 October 2025 20:58

Abstract

A decades-long security alliance between the United States and Colombia has fractured following a series of escalating military strikes in the Caribbean and a public diplomatic rupture between the two nations' presidents. Washington's decision to unilaterally declare an 'armed conflict' against drug cartels and its subsequent lethal attacks on suspected vessels have been met with accusations of murder and a violation of sovereignty from Bogotá. The crisis deepened with the immediate cessation of American aid to Colombia, threatening to dismantle the foundational counter-narcotics cooperation that has defined the bilateral relationship for a quarter of a century.

Historical Context

Plan Colombia was conceived in 1999 by Presidents Pastrana Arango and Clinton.
The US committed $1.3 billion in initial foreign aid for Plan Colombia.
The US spent nearly $8 billion on Plan Colombia over the years.
Homicides in Colombia were cut in half following Plan Colombia's implementation.
Coca leaf cultivation reached an all-time high in the previous year.

Recent Findings

President Trump announced the immediate cessation of all US funding to Colombia.
The US military conducted a seventh known strike on a suspected vessel.
The series of US strikes had resulted in the deaths of at least 32 people.
The Trump administration declared a 'non-international armed conflict' with drug cartels.
A strike on 16 October 2025 resulted in two survivors being taken into custody.

The Diplomatic Missile

The diplomatic relationship between the United States and Colombia, long considered one of Washington’s most stable security partnerships in Latin America, reached a point of open hostility on a Sunday in October 2025^20,29. President Donald Trump publicly announced the immediate cessation of all US funding, payments, and subsidies to Colombia^20,29. The decision was delivered via a social media post from his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida^13,20. In the same post, the American President launched a direct and unprecedented personal attack on his Colombian counterpart, Gustavo Petro, referring to him as “an illegal drug dealer”^{13,20,23,24,29}.

President Trump accused the Colombian leader of “strongly encouraging the massive production of drugs” across the country^20,29. He further claimed that President Petro “does nothing to stop it,” despite what he described as “large scale payments and subsidies from the USA that are nothing more than a long term rip off of America”^20,29. The post concluded with a stark warning, demanding that Petro “better close up these killing fields immediately, or the United States will close them up for him, and it won’t be done nicely”^{13,20,23,24,29}. The American President also labelled Petro as a “low rated and very unpopular leader, with a fresh mouth toward America”²⁹.

This extraordinary diplomatic rupture followed a period of mounting tension over drug policy and the US military’s new, aggressive posture in the Caribbean^20,22. Colombia remains the world’s largest exporter of cocaine, and the cultivation of coca leaves, the critical ingredient, reached an all-time high in the previous year, according to the United Nations^20,29. The Trump administration had already signalled its displeasure in September 2025 by withdrawing Colombia’s certification for anti-drug efforts, though a waiver was issued at the time to temporarily avoid aid cuts^19,28,29.

President Petro, the country’s first leftist leader, responded to the accusation with equal force on social media²². He rejected the claims, suggesting that President Trump was being misled by his “lodges and advisers”¹⁹. Petro defended his record, asserting that he was “the main enemy” drug trafficking had ever faced in Colombia^19,22. He described the American President’s comments as “rude and ignorant toward Colombia”²². The Colombian Foreign Ministry escalated the response, characterising the statement as a “direct threat to national sovereignty by proposing an illegal intervention in Colombian territory”²². The public exchange marked the lowest point in bilateral relations since the inception of the modern counter-narcotics partnership.

The Caribbean Crucible

The diplomatic crisis was inextricably linked to a new, highly militarised US campaign in the Caribbean Sea^5,7. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced on Sunday, 19 October 2025, that the US military had conducted a seventh known strike on a suspected drug-carrying vessel^8,10. The strike, which took place on the preceding Friday, killed three people⁸. Secretary Hegseth alleged that the vessel was associated with the National Liberation Army (ELN), a Colombian guerrilla group that the US has designated as a terrorist organisation since the 1990s^8,23. He stated that the boat was travelling along a “known narco-trafficking route” and was transporting “substantial amounts of narcotics”⁸. The Defense Secretary vowed that the US military would continue to treat these organisations “like the terrorists they are” and that they would be “hunted, and killed, just like Al Qaeda”⁸.

This seventh strike was part of a campaign that began in late August 2025 with a naval build-up in the southern Caribbean^5,7. The first operation, on 2 September 2025, involved the sinking of a vessel allegedly coming from Venezuela and carrying members of the Tren de Aragua gang, killing all 11 people aboard^5,11. The Trump administration has since declared that it is in a “non-international armed conflict” with drug cartels, viewing the individuals allegedly trafficking drugs as “unlawful combatants”^3,7,14,15. This assertion of presidential war powers was communicated to Congress in a memo, which argued that the cartels were engaging in an “armed attack against the United States”^7,14.

As of 19 October 2025, the series of strikes had resulted in the deaths of at least 32 people^5,11. The operations have involved the use of precision strikes against various vessels, including a semi-submersible craft, which President Trump confirmed had been attacked^7,16. The administration has consistently maintained that the strikes are military self-defence operations under US Title 10, but has not publicly provided evidence to substantiate the allegations of drug or weapon presence on all the destroyed vessels^7,11. The aggressive posture has drawn concern from lawmakers in Washington and widespread international outrage^7,14.

The Shadow of Plan Colombia

The current breakdown in relations represents a dramatic reversal of a quarter-century of deep, bipartisan cooperation under the banner of Plan Colombia^2,18. Conceived in 1999 by the administrations of Colombian President Andrés Pastrana Arango and US President Bill Clinton, the initiative was signed into law in the United States in 2000². The original objectives were broad, aiming to combat drug cartels and left-wing insurgent groups, while also providing economic development and strengthening the rule of law^2,18,25.

Initially, the US committed $1.3 billion in foreign aid and up to 500 military personnel to train local forces². Over the years, the US spent nearly $8 billion on the initiative, making Colombia one of the largest recipients of American foreign aid outside of the Middle East, Iraq, and Afghanistan since the end of the Cold War^2,25. However, the plan quickly evolved from a broad development initiative into a military-focused counter-narcotics policy²⁶. Of the original $860 million Colombia received, $632 million was devoted to military and police assistance²⁵.

Plan Colombia is credited with helping the Colombian government fight the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and other drug lords, contributing to a significant reduction in violence¹⁸. Homicides in Colombia were cut in half, and kidnappings and terrorist attacks declined by 90 per cent following the plan’s implementation¹⁸. Despite this success in stabilising the state, the counter-narcotics effort itself has been criticised for failing to quell drug production²¹. Critics argue that the militarised approach, including aerial fumigation, merely displaced coca production into other areas and countries²¹.

President Petro, a former member of the M-19 guerrilla group, has long advocated for a fundamental shift away from the militarised 'War on Drugs'²⁸. His administration has focused on voluntary crop substitution and anti-trafficker enforcement, arguing that this approach is more humane and effective than forced eradication³⁰. He has also defended his government’s record, citing the seizure of unprecedented quantities of cocaine and the extradition of over 700 drug lords to the US and Europe during 2023 and 2024³⁰. Petro’s policy of seeking 'total peace' has included a willingness to suspend the extradition of certain traffickers who commit to abandoning violence and trafficking, a move that has been a major point of contention with Washington²⁸. The US decision to cut all aid effectively ends the Plan Colombia era, forcing Bogotá to confront the powerful illegal trade without its historically decisive American assistance¹⁹.

Sovereignty and the Fisherman

The core of the diplomatic dispute lies not just in policy differences but in the lethal consequences of the US military’s new rules of engagement²². President Petro has repeatedly accused the US government of committing “murder” and violating Colombian sovereignty^20,22. He pointed specifically to a strike on 16 September 2025, which he claimed killed an innocent Colombian fisherman named Alejandro Carranza from the coastal town of Santa Marta^20,22. Petro asserted that Carranza had no ties to drug trafficking and that his boat was malfunctioning and adrift with a distress signal on when it was hit²⁰. “The United States has invaded our national territory, fired a missile to kill a humble fisherman, and destroyed his family, his children,” Petro wrote on social media^20,22,29. He demanded that the US government provide explanations and called on his country’s attorney general’s office to initiate legal proceedings internationally and in US courts^20,22.

While the White House dismissed Petro’s assertions as baseless, two US officials later stated that there were, in fact, Colombians on at least one of the boats targeted¹¹. The issue of casualties and survivors has been a sensitive point for the Trump administration, which has not publicly released information about the identities or cargo of the individuals killed¹⁶. However, a strike on 16 October 2025, which killed two people, did result in two survivors being taken into custody aboard a US Navy ship^5,16. One survivor was a Colombian national, and the other was Ecuadorian⁵. President Trump confirmed that the two survivors would be repatriated to their respective countries of origin⁵. The Colombian survivor is expected to face prosecution in his home country²². The Ecuadorian survivor, however, was not expected to face charges after prosecutors in Ecuador determined he had not committed any crimes within the country’s borders²². The repatriation of the survivors, while a small de-escalation, did little to quell the outrage over the overall death toll and the legality of the strikes themselves^15,16.

The Regional Contagion

The military campaign and the subsequent diplomatic fallout have had immediate ripple effects across the wider Caribbean region, particularly in nations bordering the drug transit routes^4,6. The US military’s operations have been closely linked to tensions with Venezuela, with the Trump administration’s initial strikes targeting vessels allegedly originating from the country^3,5,7. Venezuelan opposition figures and independent analysts have speculated that a likely, if unstated, goal of the operation is to force the departure of top figures in the Nicolás Maduro government^5,11. The Venezuelan government has accused the Trump administration of using drug trafficking accusations as a pretext for a military operation aimed at regime change²⁷.

The heightened state of alert was made tangible in Trinidad and Tobago, an island nation located just miles from the Venezuelan coast^4,6,9. The US Embassy in Port-of-Spain issued an unusual warning to American citizens on Saturday, 18 October 2025, advising them to avoid all US government facilities through the holiday weekend^4,6,9,12,15. The embassy cited a “heightened state of alert” but did not specify the nature of the threat^4,6. Trinidad and Tobago’s Minister of Homeland Security, Roger Alexander, confirmed that the alert was based on threats directed at American citizens in the Caribbean nation and that it “could be linked” to the ongoing tensions in the region^4,9,15. Local authorities responded by implementing security measures^4,9. The regional anxiety was compounded by the disappearance of two local fishermen from a coastal community in Trinidad, who are believed to have been killed in a US strike on the preceding Tuesday^4,6,9,15. The incident underscored the risk of collateral damage and the destabilising effect of the US’s new military doctrine on its regional allies¹².

Conclusion

The public confrontation between the leaders of the United States and Colombia, coupled with the lethal military campaign in the Caribbean, has brought the long-standing US-led counter-narcotics strategy in Latin America to a definitive end^19,29. The US decision to cut all aid to Bogotá, a move that terminates a partnership that has seen nearly $8 billion in American assistance since 2000, forces Colombia to navigate its complex internal conflict and drug trade without its primary foreign security partner^25,29. The Trump administration’s unilateral declaration of an 'armed conflict' against drug cartels and its willingness to use lethal force in international waters has not only alienated a key ally but has also raised profound questions about the legality of the strikes under international law and the potential for regional escalation^7,11. As the US military continues its operations, and with the diplomatic channels between Washington and Bogotá effectively severed, the stability of the entire southern Caribbean and the future of drug policy in the Western Hemisphere remain dangerously uncertain^4,22.

References

Trump calls Colombia president ‘illegal drug dealer’ as US says it hit another ship
Used to establish the core event: Trump's accusation against Petro and the concurrent US strike.
Plan Colombia - Wikipedia
Provides historical context on Plan Colombia, including its conception in 1999, signing in 2000, initial funding of $1.3 billion, and its objectives.
Hegseth says U.S. strike on alleged drug boat off Venezuela kills 4 "narco-terrorists"
Used for details on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's statements, the 'narco-terrorists' designation, and the Trump administration's declaration of an 'armed conflict' with cartels.
US Embassy issues warning to Americans in Trinidad and Tobago as tensions with Venezuela escalate - The Courier of Montgomery County
Confirms the US Embassy alert in Trinidad and Tobago, the 'heightened state of alert' reason, the link to US-Venezuela tensions, and the disappearance of two local fishermen.
2025 United States naval deployment in the Caribbean - Wikipedia
Provides the start date of the naval build-up (late August 2025), the total casualties (32 killed as of 18 October), and details on the two survivors (Colombian and Ecuadorian) from the 16 October strike.
US Embassy issues warning to Americans in Trinidad and Tobago as tensions with Venezuela escalate - San Francisco Chronicle
Corroborates the US Embassy warning in Port-of-Spain and the link to the deadly US strikes.
U.S. Conducts Sixth Strike on Suspected Venezuelan Drug Boat - USNI News
Details the US military's legal justification (military self-defense under Title 10), the 'unlawful combatants' designation, and the strike on a semi-submersible.
Trump administration strikes a seventh alleged drug boat, killing 3, Hegseth says
Confirms the seventh strike, the death toll of three people, the date of the announcement (Sunday, 19 October 2025), the link to the ELN, and Hegseth's quote about treating them 'just like Al Qaeda'.
US embassy warns Americans in Trinidad and Tobago as tensions with Venezuela escalate
Provides the name of Trinidad and Tobago's Minister of Homeland Security, Roger Alexander, and details on the threats directed at American citizens.
U.S. conducts seventh strike on boat allegedly involved in drug trafficking in the Caribbean - CTV News
Corroborates the announcement of the seventh strike by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Sunday.
2025 United States strikes on Venezuelan boats - Wikipedia
Provides the total number of people killed (at least 32 as of 19 October), the first strike's date (2 September 2025) and casualty count (11 people), and the detail that two US officials confirmed Colombians were on at least one boat.
U.S. Embassy Warns Americans in Trinidad and Tobago Amid Venezuela Tensions - Azat TV
Confirms the US Embassy alert in Port-of-Spain and the timing of the alert on a Saturday.
Trump calls Colombia's Petro an 'illegal drug dealer' and announces an end to US aid to the country - WSB-TV
Used for the quote calling Petro an 'illegal drug dealer' and the warning that the US 'will close them up for him, and it won't be done nicely'.
Hegseth says four killed in US strike on alleged drug boat off Venezuelan coast
Provides context on the Trump administration's notification to Congress about entering a 'non-international armed conflict' with cartels.
US Embassy issues warning to Americans in Trinidad and Tobago as tensions with Venezuela escalate | International - WBOC
Corroborates the US Embassy warning and the belief that two local fishermen were killed in a US strike on Tuesday.
Trump confirms U.S. strike on alleged 'drug-carrying submarine' | CBC News
Confirms Trump's statement about attacking a 'drug-carrying submarine' and the report of two survivors from the 16 October strike.
Plan Colombia: A Development Success Story - USGLC
Provides positive outcomes of Plan Colombia, such as homicides being cut in half and kidnappings/terrorist attacks declining by 90 per cent.
Trump Ends Anti-Drug Aid to Colombia, Calls Petro 'Drug Dealer' - ColombiaOne.com
Details Petro's immediate reaction, including his claim that he was 'the main enemy drug trafficking ever had' and his suggestion that Trump was misled by 'his lodges and advisers'.
Trump calls Colombia's Petro 'illegal drug dealer', announces end to US aid to country
Provides the full quote from Trump about cutting aid and Petro 'doing nothing to stop it', and Petro's counter-accusation of 'murder' regarding the fisherman Alejandro Carranza.
Not-So-Grand Strategy: America's Failed War on Drugs in Colombia - harvard.edu
Used for the criticism that Plan Colombia failed to quell drug production and that the militarised approach was counterproductive.
Trump calls Colombia's Petro an 'illegal drug leader' and announces an end to US aid to the country - The Washington Post
Provides Petro's quote calling Trump 'rude and ignorant', the Colombian Foreign Ministry's 'direct threat to national sovereignty' statement, details on the fisherman Alejandro Carranza, and the status of the two survivors (prosecution in Colombia, no charges in Ecuador).
Trump calls Colombia's Petro an 'illegal drug dealer' and announces an end to US aid to the country - Boston 25 News
Corroborates Trump's quote and the link between the latest strike and the ELN.
Trump calls Colombia's Petro an 'illegal drug dealer' and announces an end to US aid to the country - The Economic Times
Corroborates Trump's quote and the UN data on coca cultivation reaching an all-time high.
Plan Colombia: A Retrospective - Americas Quarterly
Provides the total US expenditure on Plan Colombia (nearly $8 billion) and the breakdown of the original funding (military vs. social assistance).
The 'Intermesticity' of the US-Colombia Anti-Drug Strategy under Plan Colombia - Regent's University London
Used to describe the shift of Plan Colombia from a broad development initiative to a military-focused counter-narcotic policy.
Colombia's president calls for criminal investigation against Trump over Caribbean strikes
Details Petro's call for a criminal investigation against Trump at the UN General Assembly and the Venezuelan government's accusation of the US using drug trafficking as an excuse for regime change.
Petro lashes out at Trump after U.S. decertifies Colombia on drug fight | The City Paper Bogotá
Provides context on the US decertification in September, Petro's background as a former M-19 member, and the contentious issue of extradition suspensions for peace talks.
'An illegal drug leader': Donald Trump lashes out at Columbia's president Gustavo Petro; halts US aid to the country
Corroborates Trump's full quote, including the 'illegal drug leader' and 'AS OF TODAY, THESE PAYMENTS... WILL NO LONGER BE MADE TO COLUMBIA' statements.
Trump 'TROLLED' By Putin Ally; Colombian President Petro Mocks American Forces' OP In UN Speech - YouTube
Used for Petro's claims of record cocaine seizures and extraditions (over 700 drug lords) during 2023 and 2024, and his defence of voluntary crop substitution.